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Three Brexit Time Bombs

 

First time bomb

 

‘The will of the people’ will change for biological reasons

 

In the June 23rd 2016 advisory referendum on ‘Brexit’, British voters cast 51.89% of their votes in favour of leaving the EU, with 48.11% voting to remain. This means that on the day of the referendum, ‘the will of the people’ had a clear majority of 3.78% in favour of leaving the EU.

However the Brexit process is not instantaneous. It will take approximately three years from referendum day to conclude the EU exit negotiations and at least another seven years to agree free trade deals with other countries. (It took the EU seven years to negotiate a free trade deal with Canada.)

A YouGov exit poll of referendum voters indicated that the majority in favour of Brexit were older voters, with the majority of young voters voting to remain.

This means that as every day passes after June 23rd 2016, the majority in favour of Brexit shrinks because older people have a higher mortality rate than young ones.

 

Figure 1. This chart provides a good indication of how different age groups voted.
The older voters and younger voters advised the government to act in completely opposite ways.

In the interests of honest democracy, politicians should state,
The will of the people aged 50 years and older, especially those of retirement age, was in favour of leaving the European Union.
The majority of younger voters, whose working lives will be most affected by Brexit wished to Remain
.”

 

The will of the 'Baby Boomers' is also being imposed because a higher proportion of them voted.
The best guess on what proportion of different age groups voted was published on social media and is discussed at http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/how-did-different-demographic-groups-vote-eu-referendum

Here is the data.

Figure 2. This table is only an estimate, but it implies that older voters had a disproportionate influence on the outcome of the referendum.

The following graph shows how death rate increases with age. [The author had to use data collected in the USA, but a similar shape of curve will apply to the UK.]

Figure 3. This curve shows an approximately exponential increase in death rate with age.

In terms of the Brexit vote, the curve suggests that on the day you read this webpage, the majority in favour of Brexit has fallen to below 3.78%.

It will continue to fall until one day a tipping point is reached and the will of the living people who voted will flip over in favour of Remain.

 

Figure 4. A crude, ‘back of the envelope’ estimate is that tipping point day will occur about 14 years after referendum day. Bill Courtney does not have the resources to make a more reliable prediction.

Arguably, tipping point day would have occurred several years earlier if, as in the Scottish independence referendum, sixteen and seventeen year olds had been allowed to vote.

An invitation Academics wishing to use their expertise to identify the tipping point day more precisely are encouraged to do so.

 

Getting this timescale in perspective: By the time Bois Johnson (Aged 52 years) is as old as Donald Trump (aged 70 years), the will of the living people will have been in favour of Remain for about 4 years.

 

The logical consequence of the biological time bomb.
The Brexit reasoning process on democracy suggests that on Tipping Point Day, the UK should apply to rejoin the EU.

 

 

 

The second time bomb

Modern technology and medicine will help developing countries to become prosperous within the next fifty years or so. But there is no guarantee that this improvement in economic strength will be matched by a movement towards democratic values.

We may be moving towards a new world which places great wealth in the hands of authoritarian states that choose to imitate the bullying behaviour of Putin’s Russia.

Take a look at the following table of United Nations predicted population rankings for 2050.

Then ask yourself, “How many of these countries could become a threat to world peace if they grow in economic power, but fail to adopt democratic values?”

 

 Figure 5. Many of the countries listed will need all the help they can get to become fully democratic by 2050.

As a relatively declining economic power an ‘independent’ Britain will be in a weak position to help. And if British Brexit fatally hurts the EU, Europe will not be able help either.

As a consequence, by the middle of the century, an ‘independent’ Britain could be at the mercy of states with Putin type leaders, if they chose to bully us. 

 

A dark technology

The first generation of electronic fake news is already with us.
New Photoshop and other apps will allow images and voices to be manipulated so that respected public figures appear to be making statements that in reality they disagree with.
This is an ideal tool for authoritarian states and dictators but contributes nothing to democracy.

 

The best strategy for protecting ourselves against this threat would be for Britain to remain inside a REFORMED EU and for the EU to act as a ‘midwife’ as world power shifts towards Asia and Africa.

We offer suggestions for this ‘midwife’ role on three linked web pages.

First suggestion.

Second suggestion.

Third suggestion

.

WAKEUP YOU DAYDREAMING 'REMAINERS'

British Remain campaigners and their European allies must seize the moment to reform Europe instead of daydreaming about UK voters becoming disillusioned with Brexit.

We offer some draft proposals for EU reform on this linked webpage.

 

Why the emerging nations are destined to overtake the UK as economic powers

Here is a summary of the main TECHNOLOGY innovations.

Fossil fuel resources

Britain’s industrial revolution was fuelled by coal and its current prosperity has been supported by North Sea oil and gas.

But fossil fuels are so twentieth century.

By 2050, clean energy will used to generate electricity and meet our transport needs.

 

National power grids

At the present time national power grids allow businesses in advanced countries to operate efficiently without the fear of frequent power cuts.

But Latent Power Turbines and other renewable energy resources will only require low cost, local micro-grids.

 

Corruption
One of the most effective ways of coping with corruption in emerging economies such as Nigeria is to set up your own business and become self employed.
Latent Power Turbines will allow small businesses to become energy independent and more successful.

 

 

National telephone communication systems

During the last century advanced economies made large investments in landline telephone systems. The emerging economies are leapfrogging this stage in their development thanks to the invention of mobile phones.

 

Historically Britain enjoyed a productivity advantage because physical work was easier in its cool climate

But this is changing. Air conditioning is making indoor environments a lot more comfortable for people in hot climates to work in.

Our Latent Power Turbines offer the possibility of providing free air conditioning as a by-product of power generation.

 

Tropical diseases are being brought under control

Parasites and bacteria thrive in warm climates.
The cool climate of northern Europe is relatively free from the transmittable diseases that sap the strength of workers in tropical climates. But modern medicines, vaccines and technology are gradually reducing these threats. Cheshire Innovation hopes to play its part.

 

Movement of goods

Drones and 4x4 vehicles will enable remote communities to receive vital goods even before good quality surfaced roads are built. - And mid century drones will travel a lot faster than todays road bound lorries.

3-D printing will allow spare parts for machinery to be manufactured locally and on demand instead of being imported from abroad.
Making the dictators smile: The ability to manufacture spare parts combined with self sufficiency in energy will mean that sanctions against errant states will be less effective than they are today.]

 

Connectivity

The internet allows the rapid communication of knowledge, varying from market intelligence to advice for farmers. Companies such as Facebook and Google are working hard to ensure that the developing world does not miss out.

 

University study opportunities

An efective higher education system is one of keys to national prosperity.
Traditional universities are large campuses with well stocked libraries and highly skilled university lecturers. But since the invention of the Open University in Britain in 1969, distance learning has become increasingly sophisticated. Tomorrows students in developing countries will be able to meet most of their learning needs by using some form of computing device linked up to the internet.

 

Language barriers affecting trade are falling

Thanks to the entertainment industry, English has become the international language for trade and education. In addition, powerful computer software is making spoken and written word translations in real time easy and accurate.

 

Artificial Intelligence will also reduce other intellectual skills gaps between advanced and developing nations. For example many legal and accountancy functions, essential for the smooth running of businesses can be automated. Combined with cloud based storage systems, this will allow businesses to expand rapidly without the need for large offices and a complex city infrastructure.

But there is a downside.

 

Unfortunately, surveillance equipment and military technology will also have improved by the middle of the century.

So authoritarian governments will have additional resources to help them impose their will.

 

The unintended consequences of lifting nations out of poverty

Authoritarian states could use their new wealth to buy advanced weapons and build larger armies.

Take another look at Figure 5 and you will see that many of these growing nations adhere to different denominations of Islam. Religious extremists in these countries have been in mutual conflict for over a thousand years, and with 'Christian Crusaders' for the last 800 years.

Focusing anger upon Europe
Historically, authoritarian states have deflected internal oppostion by identifying scapegoats that their citizens can vent heir anger on. For example in Nazi Germany, the Jews were blamed for Germany losing the First World War. In the coming years, the old European colonial powers and crusader states are doubly exposed to the threat of becoming scapegoats.

Focusing anger upon each other
Many of these new powers share common boarders, increasing the likelihood of conflict.

Competition for scarce water resources and other consequences of climate change will further exacerbate the problems and act as recruiting sergeants for militant Islam in these states.

 

Reducing the threat
An independent Britain, diminished in economic ranking would be unable to influence militant Islam.

In contrast, a REFORMED Europe could play a key diplomatic role in reducing the grievances of Islamic people.

 

Cross checking our arguments
The accountancy firm PWC Global has published its world economic projections for 2050 at http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html.

But, (quite reasonably!) these projections do not take into account the additional benefits that will be delivered by Latent Power Turbines.

 

The third time bomb

 

The will of the British people will not stop people in other countries from breeding

The share of the working age population in the emerging economies is greater than in the established democracies such as the UK, USA, Japan, Germany and France. This amplifies the risk of world economic power moving from the democracies to authoritarian states.
Let's look again at the UN's predicted population rankings for 2050.

 

Figure 6. The voice of the established democracies may not be able to compete with the totalitarian alternative.

 

Conclusion

The following quote is attributed to Albert Einstein

 Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.

 In the case of the UK referendum on Brexit we have oversimplified the decision to leave the EU by summarising the argument as,

‘The will of the people was 52% to 48% in favour of the leaving the EU. Therefore democracy dictates that we must leave.’

 But we will be acting against the will of the younger voters and placing their future in unnecessary jeopardy in the years after the older Brexiteers have died.

On the other hand, the majority in favour of Brexit reflects a deep unhappiness about how the EU is being run.

Remainers wishing to use the arguments on this webpage to oppose Brexit need to provide detailed plans for reforming the EU if they are to command the democratic high ground.

 

 

  

  

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